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New Analysis from LCG Consulting: Where AI is Located Matters – ERCOT 2030 Outlook

LCG, September 19, 2025--Artificial Intelligence and hyperscale data centers are not just driving unprecedented demand growth in ERCOT - they are reshaping the very dynamics of the grid.

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Southwest Power Pool Board Approves New Process to Accelerate High Impact Large Load Connections

LCG, September 16, 2025--Southwest Power Pool’s (SPP) Board of Directors today announced that the Board approved a process to facilitate the connection of large users of electricity to the power grid while continuing to support energy needs for the entire region. SPP's new process is designed to incorporate transmission service, generation, load interconnection and other relevant reliability studies into a single framework that enables timely, informed decision-making and action.

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Press Release

New Analysis from LCG Consulting: Where AI is Located Matters – ERCOT 2030 Outlook

LCG, September 19, 2025--Artificial Intelligence and hyperscale data centers are not just driving unprecedented demand growth in ERCOT - they are reshaping the very dynamics of the grid.

In our latest study, we found:

  • ERCOT's 2030 peak demand forecast surged from ~86 GW in 2022 to 138 GW in 2025, with raw projections as high as 208 GW.

  • Locational siting matters: one solar project's curtailment dropped from 45.8% -> 21.5% with a substation shift, while another’s rose from 0.1% -> 15%.

  • Batteries thrive on volatility, not just high prices. Panhandle nodes with frequent swings are attractive for arbitrage.

  • Weather assumptions change everything: using 2023 profiles instead of 2013 increased unserved energy more than 10x.

  • Flat AI loads are reshaping seasonal stress — winter is no longer a "shoulder" season, but a period of peak concern.


The takeaway is clear: It's not just how much demand is added, but where and under what conditions it materializes.

We've summarized our key findings in the image below.

Summary graphic of key findings: demand growth, locational siting, battery opportunities, weather impact, and seasonal stress

For the full report, email us at info@energyonline.com.
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