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News
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LCG, January 30, 2026--The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) yesterday issued its 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) and infographic that spotlight intensifying resource adequacy risks throughout the North American bulk power system (BPS) over the next 10 years.
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LCG, January 21, 2026--Sage Geosystems, the company pioneering Pressure Geothermal, today announced that it closed over $97 million in Series B funding to advance its geothermal power generation and energy storage solutions, including its first commercial next-generation geothermal power generation facility. Ormat Technologies, a vertically integrated company engaged in geothermal and recovered energy generation ("REG"), and Carbon Direct Capital, a growth equity investment firm, co-led Sage’s Series B round, representing the full backing of Sage and Pressure Geothermal technology from leaders in geothermal energy and growth capital.
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Industry News
NERC's New Annual Assessment Shows Rapid Demand Growth Increasing Resource Adequacy Risks Across North America
LCG, January 30, 2026--The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) yesterday issued its 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) and infographic that spotlight intensifying resource adequacy risks throughout the North American bulk power system (BPS) over the next 10 years.
The assessment is undertaken annually in coordination with the Regional Entities to provide an independent assessment and comprehensive report on the adequacy of planned BPS resources to reliably meet the electricity demand across North America over the next 10 years. The 2025 LTRA includes a probabilistic assessment and the use of energy risk metrics to identify potential supply shortfalls.
The new, 10-year summer peak demand forecast increases by 224 GW, which is more than a 69 percent increase over the 2024 LTRA forecast, with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase. The new winter demand growth continues to outpace summer demand growth with 246 GW of growth forecast over the next 10 years.
NERC's director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis stated, "This assessment is not a prediction of failure but an early warning on the trajectory of risk. The path forward is still manageable but only if planned resources come online and on time."
NERC's assessment is that the risk of electricity supply shortfalls is increasing during winter conditions, as generators with diverse fuels retire and are replaced predominantly by solar and batteries, and natural-gas-fired generators. This trend in resource additions is reflected in the 2025 LTRA, which finds that (i) new battery resource projects have grown to match solar projections (ii) natural-gas-fired generator additions represent 15 percent of the projected capacity additions and (iii) both wind and hybrid represent 8 percent. As interconnection queues continue to grow, considerable uncertainty surrounds the timing and amount of resource additions.
"As these concerns have grown more acute, more action has been taken by industry and regulators to bolster resources," said NERC's manager of Reliability Assessments. "Although projected retirements remain high with 105 GW of peak seasonal capacity planned for retirement over the next 10 years, this number has reduced by 10 GW since the previous LTRA. In addition, market mechanisms such as capacity accreditation have been launched, more precisely highlighting the loss-of-load risks posed by a generation mix that has increasing amounts of variable resources. Also, industry is reacting to the changing conditions with growing demand and evolving planning methods that highlight the potential need to keep resources on-line longer than previously anticipated."
In the report, NERC assesses the level of risk throughout the North American bulk power system. In high-risk areas, planned resources as of July 2025 would result in energy shortfalls that exceed resource adequacy targets or baseline criteria for unserved energy or loss of load. Elevated-Risk areas meet resource adequacy criteria, but planned resources are likely to result in energy shortfalls that are expected to be limited to more extreme weather conditions (like temperatures that result in above-normal demand levels, low resource output or availability, fuel supply disruptions, and limitations of normal electricity transfers. Elevated-Risk areas are identified in the LTRA when unserved energy and load loss metrics are below the High-Risk criteria but are not negligible.
The assessment areas that achieve high risk (and initial year of occurrence) in the first five years (2026-2030) are: MRO-MISO (2028), PJM (2029), Texas RE-ERCOT (2029), WECC-Basin (2029), and WECC-Northwest (2029). The assessment areas that achieve up to elevated risk in the first five years are: MRO-SPP (2026-), NPCC New York (2026-), NPCC-Maritime (2026-), MRO-SaskPower (2026-2027), SERC-East (2027-), NPCC New England (2029-), NPCC-Quebec (2029-) MRO-Manitoba Hydro (2029-). The remaining assessment areas show normal risks.
To mitigate the reliability challenges over the next 10 years, NERC recommends streamlining infrastructure development (both gas and electric), managing generator deactivations, undertaking robust adequacy assessments, and coordinating electric-natural gas system planning and operations. NERC's specific recommendations include:
First, Integrated Resource Planners, market operators, and regulators should expedite new resources to meet growing demand and carefully manage generator deactivations.
Second, NERC, industry, and regulators should understand and manage reliability risks accompanying large-load growth and leverage potential capabilities in new types of loads to provide flexibility to operators during times of grid stress.
Third, NERC, the Regional Entities, and industry should improve the LTRA by incorporating wide-area analysis, risk scenarios, and criteria to inform stakeholders of future reliability risks.
Fourth, regulators and policymakers should streamline siting and permitting processes to remove barriers to resource and transmission development.
Fifth, Regional Transmission Organizations, Independent System Operators, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) should continue to ensure that essential reliability services are maintained.
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