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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

California Supply Situation Could Deteriorate Quickly

LCG, Apr. 9, 2003--Testimony by the head of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and others before a House Government Reform subcommittee Tuesday indicated that while California's power supply appears adequate for the approaching summer, uncertainty still looms, and could be exacerbated by better economic conditions.

Terry Winter said that if the economy does not accelerate quickly, supply might be sufficient to guard against shortages until 2006 and 2007. Nonethless, given the possibility that Silicon Valley's economy will pick up by next year, Winter said he had "considerable concerns." Another witness, George Fraser of the Northern California Power Agency, noted that changes proposed by the ISO to remake California's power market structure were advancing towards implementation slowly, and did not have provisions for encouraging new transmission investment.

Legislation was to be announced today by members of the state legislature, including Senate President Pro Tem John Burton, D-San Francisco, that would dismantle key features of AB 1890, and undo the state's "failed experiment with energy deregulation." Besides the risks posed by reluctance to invest in new generation and transmission, California's supply situation is affected by runoff for hydro. If dry conditions were to suppress power generation from that source, the subcommittee Chairman Doug Ose, R-Sacramento noted, "we could be getting into trouble in 2005, 2004 with bad weather."

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's chairman, Pat Wood III, said that not just wholesale but retail changes in regulations, and price-responsive conservation from businesses and consumers, would be needed while investment improves the excess of supply relative to demand.
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